Mortgage banking and investment sales experts at Berkadia are preparing for interest rate hikes and adopting new technologies this year, according to the firm’s 2019 Outlook Powerhouse Poll. The proprietary poll, conducted in December 2018, collected insights from over 150 Berkadia investment sales brokers and mortgage bankers across 60 offices to assess 2018 commercial real estate activity and opportunities for the year ahead.

Despite four interest rate increases throughout 2018, investment sales brokers and mortgage bankers alike agree that the commercial real estate industry ended the year on a high note—82 percent said that deal volume either met or exceeded their expectations for the year. However, Berkadia’s professionals are keeping a close eye on interest rates in 2019. Eighty-one percent of mortgage bankers and 83 percent of investment sales brokers have it on their radar for the year ahead.

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The Mortgage Bankers Association this morning reported December mortgage applications for new homes fell by 13 percent from November and by 6.1 percent from a year ago.

In a separate report yesterday, the National Association of Home Builders reported its January Housing Market Index stabilized amid lower interest rates.

By Patricia Kirk

The outlook for industrial real estate in 2019 is bright, with continued strength in property fundamentals, demand outpacing supply, rent growth and strong absorption squeezing already tight vacancy rates.

By Michael Tucker

After several quarters of record-breaking high rents and low vacancies, the industrial real estate sector will likely "pause" soon, said JLL, Chicago. But it said that could be good news for smart owners, investors and occupiers.

By Jessica Guerin

After months of uneven recovery following last October’s program changes, reverse mortgage volume has fallen to a low it hasn’t seen since 2004.

Commercial real estate activity was modest to moderate in most Federal Reserve districts, while residential activity was reported to be mostly flat or declining — although the majority of districts reported increased home prices, according to the Fed Beige Book released Dec. 5. 

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By Andrea Riquier

Commercial real estate in large urban areas will be the big winner from the tax scheme aimed at boosting investment in needy areas, according to an analysis released in November.

By Kelsey Ramirez

Many economists are predicting the next recession could occur in 2020 or even 2019, but that’s not what Goldman Sachs is predicting.

By Kelsey Ramirez

Buying and selling a home is about to get a lot more difficult in 2019, or so says one expert in her forecast for next year.

The limited supply of urban industrial inventory available for “last mile” e-commerce distribution space is causing investors and end-users to get creative by repositioning other types of real estate with failed uses or shrinking demand, according to a JLL report, Urban infill: the route to delivery solutions.”  The report notes that annual total e-commerce deliveries have more than tripled over the past five years, but development of new urban industrial infill assets has remained relatively flat.

Despite dwindling opportunities in urban locations, investors remain interested in the 18 percent sales price premium last mile industrial assets command over “first mile” locations, and the higher rents users are willing to pay in order to be near their customer base.

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Ohio Gov. John Kasich on Nov. 8 appointed William Fall, MAI, SRA, to the state's Real Estate Appraiser Board for a term ending June 30, 2021. Fall is CEO of the William Fall Group, a nationwide valuation firm based in Toledo.

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A modest increase in interest rates and home prices kept housing affordability at a 10-year low in the third quarter of 2018, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) released today.

In all, 56.4 percent of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of July and end of September were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $71,900. This is down from the 57.1 percent of homes sold in the second quarter that were affordable to median-income earners and the lowest reading since mid-2008.

By John Egan

Some commercial real estate observers might be a little worked up about how office REITs might be affected by WeWork and its co-working brethren. Yet is that consternation really warranted?

By Kelsey Ramirez

The homeownership rate increased slightly in the third quarter, driven primarily by a jump in first-time homebuyers.

By Michael Tucker

Industrial activity ‘surged' in the third quarter, led by demand from the third-party logistics and packaging industry, reported Colliers International, Toronto.

By Michael Tucker

Technology companies from northern California, Seattle, Boston and New York are expanding into new markets, creating more office space demand and rent growth in beneficiary markets, reported CBRE, Los Angeles.

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that rates increased slightly across the board.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says, “Despite volatility in the stock market, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched forward just 1 basis point to 4.86 percent this week. We expect rates to continue to rise, which will put downward pressure on homebuying activity. While higher borrowing costs will keep some people out of the market, buyers with more flexibility could take advantage of the decreased competition.”

News Facts

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.86 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending October 25, 2018, up from last week when it averaged 4.85 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.94 percent. 
• 15-year FRM this week averaged 4.29 percent with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.26 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.25 percent. 
• 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.14 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.10 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.21 percent.

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By Michael Gerrity

According to new research by global property consultant CBRE, more commercial real estate investment capital crossed U.S. borders in both directions during H1 2018, with foreign inflow up by 29% from the first half of 2017, and U.S. outflow up by 15% in H1 of 2018.

On net, the U.S. commercial real estate market had a capital surplus of roughly $12 billion. Savvy foreign investors have several strategies to mitigate foreign exchange risk when acquiring U.S. assets, one of which is purchasing forward contracts to hedge against U.S. dollar depreciation. 

French company Unibail-Rodamco's acquisition of Westfield, which included a $7.7 billion shopping mall portfolio, elevated inbound capital flows from REITs and France, as well as foreign retail acquisitions, to record highs.

CBRE further reports the cost of hedging against U.S. dollar depreciation is rising worldwide, reducing effective yields for many foreign investors, despite the continuing attractiveness of the U.S. market in growth and liquidity terms. Inbound capital flows have eased in the past 24 months, providing more opportunities for domestic investors.

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Strong market conditions helped fuel a 6 percent increase in multifamily lending in 2017 as lenders provided a record high $285 billion in new mortgages for apartment buildings with five or more units, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported today.

"The multifamily lending market in 2017 benefited from improving fundamentals, rising property values and low interest rates," said MBA Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell. "The result was larger loan sizes and record levels of overall borrowing and lending."

By Liam Quinn

Missouri Gov. Mike Parson on Oct. 18 appointed Randy Bryson, SRA, AI-RRS, to the state's Real Estate Appraisers Commission. Bryson is president of Associated Property Analysts in Columbia and has been an appraiser since 1980. 

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