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Broader Real Estate Sector to Recover, Hotels to Disappoint, ULI Forecast Predicts

Originally published on October 27, 2021, by the Urban Land Institute. 

The Fall 2021 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast for 2021 to 2023 gives high-level projections of recovery to pre-pandemic levels for many U.S. real estate indicators by 2023, but with reasons to celebrate for equity REIT investors and significant disappointments for the hotel sector.

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Historic Low Cap Rates in Drug Store Sector, Data Reveals

Originally published by The Boulder Group in Q3 2021.

Cap rates in the single-tenant drug store sector decreased by 59 basis points to a new historic low rate of 5.80% in the third quarter of 2021. New historic low cap rates levels for CVS and Walgreens of 5.15% and 5.40% respectively were the primary driver of the compression. Rite Aid cap rates were compressed by 40 basis points to 7.40% but did not reach their prior historic low (2008). Investor demand for essential retailers carried over from 2020 into 2021, propelling cap rates for all three major tenants in the single-tenant drug store sector lower.

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Indoor, Outdoor Mall Visits Down in September as Retail Recovery Slows: Index

Originally published on October 6, 2021, by Ethan Chernofsky for Placer.ai BLOG.

Top tier malls across the country had been experiencing a steady recovery since the start of 2021. This recovery culminated in July when visits to indoor malls rose 1.0% above the same month in 2019, with outdoor mall visits rising 1.8%. Pent-up demand, a lack of travel, general excitement around the retail reopening and more all combined with the Back-to-School retail season to drive an impressive month.

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Housing Inventory Reaches Yearly High: Realtor.com September Housing Report

Originally published on September 30, 2021 by Nicole Murphy on Realtor.com.

New housing data shows inventory hit a 2021 high in September, giving buyers more choices than they have had all year, according to the Realtor.com® Monthly Housing Report released today. Nearly one-third of the 50 largest metros continued to see increases in newly-listed homes compared to last year and in Austin, TexasPortland, Ore.Jacksonville, Fla.; and Washington, D.C., new listings were up more than 10% year-over-year.

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Hotels in City Centers Still Struggle as Other Hospitality Properties Recover: Data

Originally published on September 22, 2021 by Shira Petrack for Placer

Our latest whitepaper analyzes the tourism and travel recovery following a year and a half of extraordinary challenges. We dove into foot traffic data for cities, states, hotels, airports, and tourist attractions across the countries to understand how the pandemic impacted – and continues to impact – these critical industries. 

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45-Day Notice on Proposed Amendments to Bylaws and Regulation No. 8, Exposure Drafts

Originally published on September 29, 2021, by the Appraisal Institute.

The Appraisal Institute Board of Directors on Sept. 27 sent to 45-Day Notice of proposed amendments to Bylaws and Regulation No. 8, Standards of Valuation Practice, and three exposure drafts.  

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Black And Latino Homeowners Are About Twice As Likely As Whites To Get Low Appraisals

Originally published on September 23, 2021, by Joe Hernandez for NPR.

Home appraisers are more likely to undervalue homes in Black and Latino areas than those in white ones, a new report by Freddie Mac has found.

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Small US Banks at Greatest Risk of Commercial Real Estate Losses: Fitch Ratings

Originally published on August 31, 2021, on MBA Newslink.

Fitch Ratings, Chicago, said the U.S. commercial real estate market will likely see deteriorating credit metrics once stimulus measures wind down and forbearance programs expire, with smaller CRE-concentrated banks more susceptible to elevated losses, which are expected to peak below levels seen in the past.

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FHFA Extends Length of Time Investors Prevented from Buying Foreclosed Homes

Originally published on September 1, 2021, by Adam Russell for FFHA. 

Washington, D.C. – Today, through the First Look Program, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) extended from 20 to 30 days, the period during which owner-occupants, public entities, and nonprofits will have exclusive ability to buy Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) real estate owned (REO) properties before they are available for investor purchase. Launched in 2009, the First Look Program promotes owner occupancy and neighborhood stabilization. Providing individuals, families, and nonprofits with a longer amount of time to find adequate financing should help keep owner-occupants living in these homes.

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Cap Rates in Quick-service Sector at Historic Low: Report

Cap rates in the net lease quick-service sector reached a historic low of 5.26% during the second quarter, down 39 basis points from last year, according to the Q2 2021 Net Lease QSR Market Report released Sept. 1 by The Boulder Group. Cap rates for corporate-leased QSR properties dropped 20 basis points to 5%, while properties leased to franchisees dropped 43 basis points to 5.4%.

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Existing-home Sales Rose 2% in July as Most Regions Reported Gains: NAR

Originally published on August 23, 2021 by Quintin Simmons for the National Association of Realtors.

WASHINGTON (August 23, 2021) – Existing-home sales rose in July, marking two consecutive months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major U.S. regions recorded modest month-over-month gains, and the fourth remained level. Figures varied from a year-over-year perspective as two regions saw gains, one witnessed a decline and one was unchanged.

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3D-printed Homes Appeal to Two-thirds of Consumers: Report

Originally published on August 20, 2021, by Nicole Murphy for Realtor.com.

Three Quarters of Millennials Would Consider a 3D Printed Home, According to Realtor.com® Survey

Major selling points include affordability, energy efficiency and resistance to natural disasters

SANTA CLARA, Calif.Aug. 20, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- 3D printed home technology has hit the mainstream, with builders claiming these homes can be built in half the time and for half the cost. But will people actually buy them? A new survey from Realtor.com® found that 66% of all consumers and 75% of millennials would consider living in a 3D printed home. The survey also found that 30% of all respondents and 43% of millennials think that 3D printed homes will replace traditional methods of homebuilding.

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Growing Sales, New Stores to Boost Retail Loans: Outlook

Originally published on August 24, 2021, by Michael Tucker for Mortgage Bankers Association.

Moody’s Investors Service, New York, said rebounding retail sales and new store openings should boost retail property loan performance.

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People Moving to Areas with High Disaster Risk: Redfin

Originally published on August 25, 2021, by Angela Cherry for Redfin.

More People Are Moving In Than Out of Areas Facing High Risk From Climate Change

Redfin analysis finds that the U.S. counties with the largest share of homes facing high heat, drought, fire, flood and storm risk saw their populations grow from 2016-2020

SEATTLE, Aug. 25, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — America's disaster-prone areas are becoming more populous as new residents move in, according to a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. The U.S. counties with the largest share of homes facing high heat, drought, fire, flood and storm risk saw their populations grow from 2016-2020 due to migration, while the counties with the smallest share of homes facing climate risk largely saw their populations decline.

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2021 Real Estate Valuation Conference is next Thursday!

Register now for next week’s Real Estate Valuation Conference! Industry experts from CBRE, NewRez, Flagship Healthcare Properties, and Lee & Associates will discuss the appraisal industry’s current market trends and critical focus areas in real estate valuation. View the full list of speakers and their session descriptions here

The conference has been approved by the
NC Appraisal Board for 7 credit hours

Registration will close at 5pm ET on 9/1.

Register Now

Home Prices Climb in Nearly all Metro Areas During Q2: NAR

Originally published on August 12, 2021, by Quintin Simmons for Mortgage Association of Realtors.

WASHINGTON (August 12, 2021) – Continued low levels of housing inventory, combined with record-low mortgage rates spurring housing demand, have caused an increase in median sales prices for existing single-family homes in all but one of 183 measured markets during the second quarter of 2021. That is according to the National Association of Realtors®' latest quarterly report, which reveals that 94% of 183 metro areas also experienced double-digit price increases (89% in the first quarter of 2021).

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Investor Demand Returning to Retail Sector

Originally published on July 12, 2021, by Michael Tucker for MBANewslink.

Consumer retail spending now exceeds pre-COVID levels; investor confidence in retail real estate is also growing, reported JLL, Chicago.

The retail sector–especially non-essentials goods and services–was among the hardest-hit CRE sectors early in the pandemic, but as vaccinations increase and restrictions ease, investor interest is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels. The sector captured an 11-percent share of transaction volume year-to-date in 2021, nearly where it was before the 2020 lockdowns.

“Consumer shopping patterns have bounced back due to pent-up demand over the past 12 months,” said Danny Finkle, JLL Senior Managing Director. “People are spending money across the spectrum of retail locations.”

Finkle noted this increased spending goes “hand-in-hand” with investor sentiment, “so as consumers spend more on food and beverage, apparel and other non-essentials and spend time in malls, departments stores and lifestyle centers, capital will follow,” he said.





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Urban Flight is a Myth, Freddie Mac Report Shows

Originally published on July 12, 2021 by The Economic & Housing Research Group for Freddie Mac.

As we noted in a previous report, there was an observed shift of home purchases in the last decade, even before the onset of COVID-19, from urban areas to suburbs and rural towns. We went on to link several possible socioeconomic factors driving the ongoing trend of household migration away from urban areas. The present study extends those findings using MLS data collected from January 2000 to May 2021 to address additional changes taking place pre- and post-COVID in the residential environmental preferences of households. While the rising trend of suburbanization and movement to rural areas still holds true, the new data also refutes the notion that urban revival is over—at least not in all cities—by illustrating the heterogeneity of the U.S. housing market across its regions.

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Sentiment Regarding CRE, Cap Rates Improves: Survey

Originally published on July 15, 2021 by Michael Tucker for Mortgage Bankers Association.

CRE executives’ market sentiment has improved dramatically from a year ago, reported RCLCO, Washington, D.C.

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Economy Still Needs Support, Progress Still a Ways Off: Fed

Originally published on July 14, 2021, for BloombergNews.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it was still too soon to scale back the central bank’s aggressive support for the U.S. economy, while acknowledging that inflation has risen faster than expected.

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