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Retail Fundamentals on the Decline Due to Inflation, Banking Issues: JLL

Originally published on May 9, 2023, by Keisha Virtue for JLL.

Executive summary:

  • Retail fundamentals have started to pull back as a consequence of sustained inflation and banking troubles. Consumers have responded to persistent inflation by shifting money away from discretionary goods purchases in favor of groceries and other key necessities. Discounters and online retailers win consumers’ dollars, as real disposable income wanes.
  • Net absorption totaled a modest 9.1 million square feet for the quarter – a substantial decline from the 20.1 million square feet absorbed in the fourth quarter.
  • Demand is still coming largely from discounters like Burlington and dollar stores, as well as QSRs and fast casual restaurants. In fact, aggressive expansion by QSRs and coffee chains have contributed to a record-low availability rate of single-tenant retail space at just 2.4%.
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Retail Real Estate Thrives as Store Closures Drop 58% This Year, Data Shows

Originally published on July 19, 2022, by Buck Wargo for WealthManagement.com.

Strong consumer spending over the past year has prompted retailers to open more stores than they closed. But concerns about rising inflation and the economy this summer have led some to hit the pause button on expansion for now, according to retail analysts.

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Retail Real Estate Attracting New Investors as Rents Climb, Occupancy Increases: JLL

Originally published on May 25, 2022, by Michael Tucker for Mortgage Bankers Association.

Retail’s journey from underdog to a favored asset class continues, reported JLL, Chicago.

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Largest Mall Operator in Europe Seeks to Unload $13 Billion in US Assets: Report

Originally published on April 12, 2022, by Jack Roger for Globest.com.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, Europe’s largest mall operator, is planning to exit the US market and sell its portfolio of US mall properties by the end of 2023, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.

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Retail Foot Traffic Falls Amid Spike in Gas Prices, Report Shows

Originally published on March 30, 2022, by Dees Stribling for BisNow National.

The sudden surge in the price of gas in the United States, up an average of more than 70 cents a gallon from a month ago, has had an adverse impact on retail foot traffic, Placer.ai reports.

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Retail Real Estate Continues to Recover, Led by Sunbelt and Suburban Properties: JLL

Retail real estate continues to recover, with growing interest in the Sunbelt states and the suburbs; urban retail is expected to rebound once office workers return and tourism picks up, JLL reported Dec. 6 in its Retail Recovery report. Open-air shopping centers remain the sector’s strongest assets, and as for indoor malls — the good ones are here to stay.

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Commercial Real Estate Tenants Say They Plan to Expand Next Year, Report Shows

Commercial real estate tenants say they are more likely to increase their space next year than decrease it, with around 70% reportedly looking to expand, the Visual Lease Data Institute reported Nov. 10 in its new commercial real estate outlook. Most tenants and landlords expect rent prices to be the same or slightly higher next year.

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Growing Sales, New Stores to Boost Retail Loans: Outlook

Originally published on August 24, 2021, by Michael Tucker for Mortgage Bankers Association.

Moody’s Investors Service, New York, said rebounding retail sales and new store openings should boost retail property loan performance.

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Investor Demand Returning to Retail Sector

Originally published on July 12, 2021, by Michael Tucker for MBANewslink.

Consumer retail spending now exceeds pre-COVID levels; investor confidence in retail real estate is also growing, reported JLL, Chicago.

The retail sector–especially non-essentials goods and services–was among the hardest-hit CRE sectors early in the pandemic, but as vaccinations increase and restrictions ease, investor interest is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels. The sector captured an 11-percent share of transaction volume year-to-date in 2021, nearly where it was before the 2020 lockdowns.

“Consumer shopping patterns have bounced back due to pent-up demand over the past 12 months,” said Danny Finkle, JLL Senior Managing Director. “People are spending money across the spectrum of retail locations.”

Finkle noted this increased spending goes “hand-in-hand” with investor sentiment, “so as consumers spend more on food and beverage, apparel and other non-essentials and spend time in malls, departments stores and lifestyle centers, capital will follow,” he said.





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Store Closures Slow as Retail Sector Recovers: Data

Originally published on June 28, 2021, by Ben Unglesbee for The Retail Dive.

Dive Brief:

  • For the first time in 2021, store closures have declined year over year, according to an emailed report from Coresight Research.
  • The firm tracked 4,626 closures so far this year, 5.7% fewer than last year at this time. Leading retailers in closures so far is Christopher & Banks, which liquidated its physical footprint in bankruptcy this year. Another recent retail bankruptcy, Francesca's, closed 342 stores, a significant chunk of its footprint.
  • Openings to date stand at 4,311, a 41.8% increase over the same period in 2020. The runaway leader in openings is Dollar General, with 1,035 new stores this year, followed by Dollar Tree with 393 openings.
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Rent is cheap, vacant space is everywhere: Retailers seize the moment to open stores

Originally published on March 18, 2021, by Lauren Thomas for CNBC.com.

For the first time in years, retailers across the country are planning to open more stores than they are closing.

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Industrial and Office Property Values On the Rise, Retail Headed Down, Survey Reveals

By Barbra Murray

The future still bodes well for the office and industrial sectors, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors 2019 Q1 U.S. Commercial Property Monitor report. However, survey participants indicate that more downward movement is on tap for the retail sector.

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Cap Rates to Remain Steady Through June, Experts Predict

By Kerry Curry

With late 2018 jitters gone and investor optimism returning, the commercial real estate market should experience mostly steady cap rates through the first half of 2019, although there are particular market segments and geographies that could experience some bumps.

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More Online Retailers Opening Physical Stores, JLL Reports

By Michael Tucker

A record number of e-commerce retailers opened physical stores last year and 850 more are set to open in the next five years, reported JLL, Chicago.

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Net Lease Retail Market Sees Cap Rate Increases, Report Shows

Written by Liz Wolf

Cap rates for net lease retail properties have finally pushed upward.

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