Fannie Mae Data Shows Modest Recession Likely in 2023

Originally published on September 21, 2022 by Matthew Classick for Fannie Mae.

Economic growth is projected to resume in the second half of 2022, but the combination of high inflation, monetary policy tightening, and a slowing housing market is likely to tip the economy into a modest recession in the new year, according to the September 2022 commentary from the Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The ESR Group continues to forecast 0.0 percent real GDP growth on a full-year basis through 2022, but it revised downward its expectations for full-year 2023 growth by one-tenth of a percentage point to negative 0.5 percent. Core inflation remains considerably higher than the Federal Reserve’s stated target; as such, the ESR Group maintained its expectation that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise the federal funds rate by 75 basis points at its September meeting. The ESR Group’s baseline forecast anticipates the federal funds rate topping out at a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent in early 2023, though it sees significant upside risk to the eventual terminal rate.

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