By Jon Banister
Tenant demand in the office market has been increasingly favoring shorter-term lease deals, a trend that complicates how much buildings are worth.
Our last NCAI Connect featured Gerald Quattlebaum with Flagship Healthcare Properties who presented a comprehensive look into the healthcare real estate sector. He discussed the development and acquisition of healthcare properties as well as Flagship’s private REIT which has managed to maintain stability in the current economic climate. Private equity increased their share of buying medical office buildings (MOBs) compared with hospital/health systems, provider owners, and REITs. Gerald discussed cap rate trends for on and off campus properties which are holding steady in 2020. Portfolios are seen to be traded at a premium, and overall, pricing remains steady for MOBs. Of the top 50 active markets, Charlotte was third, following New York and LA. The overall effects of COVID-19 do not appear to impact healthcare properties which are considered a ‘safe harbor’ but there are potential sale-leaseback opportunities if owners and investors decide “to dispose of capital-intensive real estate holdings.”
The Appraisal Institute Board of Directors adopted one 45-Day Notice item on its agenda during its Aug. 6-7 meeting, which was conducted via videoconference due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The Board adopted the proposed amendments to Appraisal Institute Regulation No. 4 regarding streamlining the requirements for readmission to Designated Membership. The 45-Day Notice was distributed to Appraisal Institute professionals June 22.
The Board also voted to send to 45-Day Notice proposed amendments to the Appraisal Institute Bylaws regarding the Audit Committee. Additionally, a project team will be created to study potential changes to Appraisal Institute Bylaws, policies and procedures regarding the nomination and election process for vice president.
Craig Steinley, MAI, SRA, AI-GRS, AI-RRS, of Rapid City, South Dakota, was elected 2021 vice president of the nation’s largest professional association of real estate appraisers Thursday by its Board of Directors during the Board’s virtual meeting.
Steinley’s one-year term at the Appraisal Institute will begin Jan. 1, followed by one year each as president-elect, president and immediate past president. He will serve on AI’s Executive Committee and the policy-making Board of Directors all four years. He also will chair the Finance Committee in 2021 and the National Nominating Committee in 2024.
“I feel privileged to have been elected vice president of the Appraisal Institute, and I’m excited to help guide the organization through these unusual times,” Steinley said. “I look forward to working hard for valuation professionals in the United States and around the world.”
Lenders tightened their standards on commercial and industrial business loans to firms of all sizes amid weaker demand during the second quarter, the Federal Reserve reported Aug. 3 in its newest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. The tightened standards and reduced demand also applied to construction and land development loans, nonfarm residential loans and multifamily loans.
The COVID-19 pandemic rages on, with the U.S. remaining one of the worst-hit parts of the globe. Other nations have contained the virus or are dealing with more isolated outbreaks. There's no clear end in site for the crisis. The global economy remains gripped by uncertainty and hobbled by measures necessary to contain the spread of the virus.
It's in this context that CBRE is releasing its Global Real Estate Market Outlook 2020 Mid-Year Review report. As it did with its 2020 Real Estate Market Outlook, CBRE has provided NREI an advance look at the report. The slideshow walks through the firm's observations with interactive versions of the charts published in the report.
The U.S. economy expanded in May and June, but by some measures it already is slowing down, according to data released July 20 by real estate firm JLL. Advance retail sales rose 7.5% between May and June, and industrial production jumped 5.4% during the same period, but consumer sentiment declined in July over fears of increasing COVID-19 cases.
The Mortgage Industry Standards Maintenance Organization, known as MISMO, on July 24 released for comment its proposed commercial appraisal data standards. The standards are intended to facilitate the exchange of commercial appraisal information, which is critical for underwriting and loss mitigation, between multiple industry participants. Comments are due Sept. 21.
Home sales increased moderately across most Fed districts, but commercial activity remained at a low level, with reports of mixed or deteriorating conditions — although most tenants reportedly paid rent in June, according to the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book released July 15. Investment activity was slow to nonexistent across the board.
Commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers are expected to close $248 billion in loans backed by income-producing properties this year, a 59 percent decline from 2019’s record volume of $601 billion, a new Mortgage Bankers Association forecast said.
Total multifamily lending alone, which includes some loans made by small and midsize banks not captured in the overall total, is forecast to fall by 42 percent to $213 billion in 2020 from last year’s record total of $364 billion. MBA anticipates a partial rebound in lending volumes in 2021, with activity rising to $390 billion in commercial/multifamily mortgage bankers originations and $308 billion in total multifamily lending.
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve, after some initial optimism that the Covid-19 slump would be deep but confined to the second quarter of this year, now seem braced for a more prolonged recession marked by high unemployment and a rising risk of corporate bankruptcies.
The Appraisal Institute sent a letter urging swift passage of the Portal for Appraisal Licensing Act of 2020 in the 116th Congress, which would amend the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989 to establish a portal for appraisal credentialing and AMC registration information, and for other purposes.
“Appraisers need help reducing their administrative burdens and servicing clients, particularly in a socially distant workplace where clients may be located in other states,” said Appraisal Institute President Jefferson L. Sherman, MAI, AI-GRS.
Demand for office space is intrinsically linked to the economy; generally in a downturn, office demand drops off as employment levels fall and corporates move into cash preservation mode. The global pandemic has undoubtedly pushed us into a global recession and in the short term this will have a direct impact on office demand. However, in light of the success of wholescale working from home, the question is now being asked – over the longer term, will this be the catalyst for the end of the office?
This is not the straightforward equation it is often portrayed as; increased working from home does not directly equal less demand for office space. There are a myriad of other factors which need to be looked at, including density, financial returns, productivity and technology. Before examining these factors, it is worth taking a step back to look at the function and purpose of the office from both the employer and employee perspective.
Last week, NCAI was joined by Appraisal Institute President Jefferson L. Sherman, MAI, AI-GRS, and Chief Executive Officer Jim Amorin, CAE, MAI, SRA, AI-GRS who spoke with members about the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on the Appraisal Institute, individual appraisers, and the valuation profession, how AI is facing these issues, and projected what the future of the industry looks like. Click here or on the image below to view the recording.
The North Carolina Chapter of the Appraisal Institute (NCAI) has been informed that Jack C. (Cal) Morgan III, MAI, SRA, AI-GRS, has been appointed to the North Carolina Appraisal Board (NCAB) by Tim Moore, NC House Speaker. We congratulate Cal on his appointment, and we thank him for his willingness to be a leader in the appraisal industry. We wish you well in this endeavor, and we know you will continue to promote the highest standards for real estate appraisal practice in the protection of the public trust.
Cal is a graduate of the College of Charleston, in Charleston, SC. He has over 20 years of experience in real estate appraisal, construction, and investment analysis. He is the owner of JC Morgan Company in Wilmington, NC, which provides appraisal services as well as consulting and litigation support services. Cal is also a NC licensed general contractor and NC real estate broker. He served on the NC Property Tax Commission from 2013 to 2017 and currently serves as the Chairman of the Wilmington Zoning Board of Adjustment. Cal lives in Wilmington with his wife Seanna and their three children.
Congratulations Cal!According to Freddie Mac’s Quarterly Forecast, housing markets have been affected by the pandemic with both home sales and house price growth declining.
“While the housing market undoubtedly has felt the effects of COVID-19, we are encouraged by recent homebuyer demand as well as mortgage rates that should remain at record lows for the foreseeable future.” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “However, beyond the initial rebound in the housing market, the economic and housing outlook will be heavily impacted by the prospects for a vaccine, fiscal policy and the underlying organic recovery of the economy which, in combination, make the outlook highly uncertain.”
Governor Roy Cooper announced yesterday that as trends move in the wrong direction, North Carolina will remain in Phase 2 for three more weeks. Executive Order 147 also requires face coverings in public and at various business settings where individuals cannot maintain a physical distance of six feet from others.
Construction sites are specifically included:
The Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased 4.5 points in May to 67.5, building slightly after nearing its all-time survey low in April. Four of the six HPSI components increased month over month, with consumers reporting a somewhat more optimistic view of homebuying conditions and, to a lesser extent, home-selling conditions. Moreover, fewer consumers reported expectations that mortgage rates will go up over the next 12 months. Year over year, the HPSI is down 24.5 points.
“Although the HPSI’s precipitous declines of March and April did not continue in May, Americans’ financial, economic, and housing market concerns remain substantially elevated compared to survey history,” said Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Low mortgage rates have helped cushion some of the impact of the pandemic on consumer sentiment regarding whether it’s a good time to buy a home, which picked back up this month to late-2018 levels. Although weakened income perceptions and continuing job loss concerns, particularly among renters, are likely weighing on many would-be buyers, purchase mortgage applications have returned to mid-March levels when pandemic response measures began ramping up. Home-selling sentiment remains severely dampened due primarily to economic concerns, though increased purchase activity may improve the confidence of some potential sellers. As lockdown restrictions begin to ease across the country, we expect economic recovery to be largely shaped by consumers’ decisions regarding when and how to reengage in the economy. We believe this month's HPSI results and Friday's unexpectedly favorable labor market report to be encouraging signs for the months ahead.”
