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Forecast Shows Both Declining and Rebounding CRE Sector

Originally published on December 12, 2023, by CBRE.

Economic growth is expected to slow in 2024 and real estate transaction values should decline further, which could create compelling buying opportunities, although lending is expected to remain tight, CBRE reported Dec. 14 in its 2024 U.S. Real Estate Outlook. However, the firm also reported that it expects commercial real estate values to rebound during the second half of the year.

Executive Summary

  • There is an increased chance that the U.S. will avoid a recession and achieve a soft economic landing in 2024, but economic growth will slow and downside risks are elevated.
  • Commercial real estate investment activity likely will begin to pick up in the second half of 2024.
  • The normalization of hybrid working arrangements will continue to limit the growth of office demand.
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Older Offices Most at Risk of Loan Default; Post-2015 Buildings Face Least Risk: Data

Originally published on 

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NAR Report Shows Robust Retail and Hospitality Sectors, Weak Office and Multifamily

Originally published on September 27, 2023, by Oleh Sorokin for the National Association of Realtors.

While the massive interest rate hikes have hammered the commercial real estate market, the recent Federal Reserve decision to hold rates unchanged will give the market a break. After 11 collective rate hikes in the last 18 months, commercial real estate credit has gotten even tighter as lenders have been more cautious after the recent collapse of the two regional banks in March of 2023. According to the Federal Reserve survey, small and mid-sized banks — holding most commercial real estate loans — reported tighter lending standards in the year's second quarter. In the meantime, delinquency rates for commercial real estate loans have increased, albeit remaining historically low. Although the Federal Reserve is signaling more rate hikes to follow by the end of the year, this pause will give some time to assess the impact of higher rates on the economy.

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Buyers Sought for Signature Bank’s $33 Billion Commercial Real Estate Portfolio

Originally published on September 5, 2023, by Pete Schroeder for

The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is seeking buyers for the $33 billion commercial real estate (CRE) loan portfolio of failed New York lender Signature Bank, it said on Tuesday.

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Restaurants are Acquisition Targets Despite Ongoing Challenges, Report Shows

Originally published on August 28, 2023 by Phillippa Maister for

Restaurants have become attractive targets for acquisitions despite ongoing challenges with sales rising 10.3% over the previous year in the second quarter of 2023 following a 3.2% gain in Q1, according to BizBuySell, an online business for sale marketplace. Furthermore, restaurants that sold in Q2 generated more revenue and buyers paid more for them. 

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Supply of Coworking Spaces Jumps 10% for the Quarter, Yardi Reports 

Originally published on July 26, 2023 by Laura Pop-Badiu for the Coworking Cafe.

Coworking — which has consistently been on the rise and significantly fueled by the increase in remote and hybrid work — continues its upward trajectory across the U.S. And, with more flexible workspaces opening their doors every day and new operators entering the market, the changes in this industry are notable, even in the span of just a few months.

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CRE Transaction Volume, Prices Expected to Drop, According to ULI Forecast

Originally published on May 25, 2023, by The Urban Land Institute.

Positive but slow growth is in store for the U.S. economy over the next two years with a return to stronger growth and average inflation in 2025. Changes over this three-year forecast period are expected to reflect this pattern, according to the latest edition of the Urban Land Institute’s (ULI) semiannual Real Estate Economic Forecast.

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Hotel Sector to Have Better Year Than Initially Forecast, CBRE Reveals

Originally published on May 30, 2023, by Anneliese Mahoney for Mortgage Banker's Association.

CBRE, Dallas, raised its hotel performance outlook for this year once again, improving its forecast for revenue per available room to $97.89, up 6% year-over-year, and an increase of 43 cents from its previous forecast.

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Distressed CRE Loans Continue to Rise, Report Shows

Originally published on May 11, 2023, by Erik Sherman for

Distressed CRE loans continue to rise, according to CRE data, analytics, and valuation firm CRED iQ, which reports that most of the top metropolitan statistical areas saw significant jumps of up to 2.5%.

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Office, Industrial and Apartment Values Down, Retail and Hotels Up: NCREIF

Originally published on April 28, 2023 by the Mortgage Banker's Association.

The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, Chicago, said its quarterly Property Index showed aggregate market values of properties declined for the third straight quarter; returns were negative for the second straight quarter.

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Banks Worried About Falling CRE Values, Officials Say

Originally published on April 28, 2023, by Henry Simpson for US Today.

US banks are increasingly concerned about falling commercial property valuations and the risk they pose to lenders’ balance sheets, senior officials said this week.

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Concerns Over Small-cap vs. Large-cap CRE Performance Unwarranted: Boxwood Means

Originally published on April 17, 2023, by Michael Tucker for the Mortgage Banker's Association.

Small-cap commercial real estate appears to be in better shape than the larger CRE market, reported Boxwood Means LLC, Stamford, Conn.

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CRE Values to Drop as Banks Dump Failed Assets: Report

Originally published on April 3, 2023, by Jack Rogers for

With interest rates still rising, prices retreating, and credit evaporating—and a stressed-out banking system moving to shore up balance sheets—expect more fire sales of older CMBS loans and acceleration of plunging CRE values in markets across the US.

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CRE Prices, Deal Volume Drop as Interest Rates Rise: Report

Originally published on March 30, 2023, by Michael Tucker for the Mortgage Banker's Association.

The commercial property pricing decline steepened in February, pulled down by a sharp fall in the apartment sector, reported MSCI, New York.

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CRE Values and Volume Expected to See Significant Drop, Banking Firm Predicts

Originally published on March 13, 2023, by Erik Sherman for

Strong Demand Anticipated for Outpatient Healthcare Facilities, According to JLL  

Originally published on  b

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CRE Small-cap Equity Market Ends Year with Slight Increase: Boxwood Means

Originally published on January 15, 2023 by Randy Fuchs for Boxwood Means.

The total market dollar value of small-cap CRE rose marginally in 2022 headlined by a shift in opportunity and risk for investors and lenders. Though the market’s total equity valuation in December testifies to this domain’s inherent resilience, sinking deal volume, decelerating prices and rising cap rates over the second half of the year curbed the market’s considerable expansion following the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Student Housing Excels for Another Year: Yardi Matrix

Originally published on January 18, 2023, by Yardi Matrix.

The student housing industry is set up for another solid performance in 2023 after record returns last year, according to the latest National Student Housing Report from Yardi® Matrix.

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Grocery Sector Continues to Thrive, Gains Shoppers Despite Challenges, Data Shows  

Originally published on January 10, 2023, by Michael Tucker for the Mortgage Banker's Association.

The grocery sector continues to show impressive resilience despite inflation, supply-chain issues and labor shortages, reported, Los Altos, Calif.

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Reversing a Trend, Master-planned Communities See Softening Demand, Data Shows

Originally published on Janaury 10, 2023 by Michael Tucker for the Mortgage Banker's Association.

RCLCO, Bethesda, Md., reported master-planned communities–just like the broader U.S. housing market–saw a decline in home sales last year compared to 2021.

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